Just over two months into hurricane season, the Atlantic has been relatively quiet, but that doesn’t mean Central Florida hasn’t been impacted by extreme weather this summer. Disney World and the Universal Orlando Resort were drenched by a tropical system two weeks ago, and then saw record-breaking high temperatures this past week.
In years past, the first Atlantic Hurricane usually hit around August 11, a week from Monday. However, the Climate Prediction Center predicts two separate storms could impact the state late this week or the week after.
The National Hurricane Center only makes predictions a week in advance, and both of these storms are outside of its prediction window, but the Climate Prediction Center sees that the conditions are suitable for a storm to start next week.
The CPC examines the surface water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, and the amount of Saharan Dust over the ocean. There is limited Saharan Dust over the Atlantic, which makes conditions suitable for hurricane development. The Saharan Air Layer provides warm, dry air that keeps thunderstorms down, a necessary component for storm development.
Temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean from Africa to Florida are hovering at or above 80 degrees, which is conducive to storm development. Invest 95L is already starting to develop in the Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas.
A week out, the CPC gives the storms a 20-40 percent chance of developing in the next 10 days, while the National Hurricane Center gives them a 20 percent chance of developing in the next seven days. While the chances for development are currently low, the storms are still too far away to make a better prediction, despite conditions conducive to their development.
With many in the north heading back to school in late August, the next three weeks will be busy for last-minute vacations to Disney World, but Mother Nature may have other ideas. Keep checking those weather reports because a hurricane may be coming to Central Florida.
What’s your best tip for surviving a hurricane at Disney World? Let us know in the comments.
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